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FootBiz newsletter #126: What the future looks like for the Super League project

There's a non-zero chance European football has its 'LIV Golf moment'

“What about the Super League story?” asked one subscriber after receiving Tuesday morning’s FootBiz.

Fair question. And as he’s a Premium subscriber we’ll do a whole intro on it.

Though we did end up going long on a pretty fundamental issue affecting European football in Tuesday’s newsletter, the latest from A22 did make it onto our to-do list on Monday without ever actually getting done.

So let us not delay in addressing it now, especially as it's all kind of linked to the TV rights issue (and current business model) of European football.

The news story itself regarding the zombie Super League project is that A22, the entity that manages the failed breakaway competition, is launching (or threatening to launch) legal action against UEFA.

It all goes back to the landmark ruling at the European Court of Justice in 2023 which made it clear that European football’s governing body had been breaking competition law by quashing rival tournaments (or one tournament, the ‘Super League’ of April 2021).

The ruling exposed yet another example of football’s problem with “double hatters” — institutions that are increasingly doubling as governing bodies, who set the rules, while also being major competition organisers, who profit from tournaments and govern who can compete with them. One lawyer we spoke to about this suggested that there is no way governing bodies will be allowed to both profit from huge tournaments and continue to be the law-making authorities in the future. The issues will only become greater. Another lawyer we spoke to thinks the Super League project itself will “never” happen and rather that the 2023 ruling is more of a challenge to UEFA’s dual role “which will continue to be chipped away at” than it was an endorsement of the Super League model.

A22’s Unify League would supposedly comprise 96 clubs

Anyway, A22 basically says that it’s been negotiating with UEFA about getting approval for its Unify League farce idea (we’ve been fairly consistent in the past that this plan is completely unrealistic and simply a quest for leverage) but they complain that Aleksander Ceferin and his band of merry bureaucrats have simply been wasting time with no intention of rubber-stamping their competition.

Now, there is some vague precedent/parallel happening elsewhere at the moment.

The defunct NASL sued the US Soccer Federation (USSF) alleging that Major League Soccer and the USSF conspired against them to kill their reborn league. They failed to prove it, but there was enough legal encouragement for USL that the USSF wouldn’t be allowed to prevent them launching a fully-fledged rival to MLS, and they entered into a similar quest for approval as A22 with UEFA.

There are a number of requirements to be sanctioned as Division One by the USSF, including rules around geography, financials and facilities but ultimately the USL is very excited about launching it’s new, fully-sanctioned-by-the-USSF Tier 1 league in 2028 because it will be officially on the same level as MLS.

Ok. So what?

Maybe the plan is to force MLS into a merger, but considering the league already has 30 teams, things could get a bit crowded. If the plan is to surpass MLS then good luck, they have a hell of a headstart. Regardless, most USL decks that we have seen suggest that investors are more interested in real estate development than a quality football product but this is America after all, folks.

It seems legally difficult for UEFA to keep rejecting A22’s project

Before we stray too far from the intended topic, though, the point is that USL getting a rubber stamp as a ‘Tier 1’ league from the US federation means… well, not that much really.

A22 are desperate for UEFA to give them the official thumbs up, and they may get to a point where UEFA simply can’t keep saying no for fear of getting sued to oblivion (Real Madrid and A22 are already suing for $4.5bn and presumably the number would go up).

But if UEFA turns around tomorrow and says “yeah, we had to approve the Unify League” then what actually happens?

The plan itself has never had even a sniff of viability to it. How many clubs would leave behind their guaranteed incomes and prestige positions to jump ship to a wonky competition that is never going to have the top teams from the best league in the world (Premier League) or the 3rd/4th-best league in the world (Bundesliga) — oh, and that fans have already made clear they don’t actually want.

You could probably scrape a few clubs together to make one division. Real Madrid are obviously in. Barcelona might consider it still. Juventus almost certainly. Marseille? Inter? Rangers? Celtic? Club Brugge? The Dutch clubs would face riots if they tried but maybe FC Copenhagen would be in?

It’s just all beginning to sound a bit… meh.

Of course there is a flipside to this, in that UEFA has essentially turned the Champions League into the Super League in the intervening period, with the elite clubs using their aborted attempt to jump ship to somehow leverage more money out of the tournament. The CL now gets 75% of all UEFA’s club competitions revenue (Conference League gets just 8%, by way of comparison) and there is a feeling from others that in a few years the majority “will be begging the big clubs to go off to their Super League”. It seems perhaps dramatic, but given the direction of travel you can see why that would be the case.

What happens then? Every TV contract would need to be renegotiated. Clubs would be suing leagues and vice versa. European football could very feasibly break into two, parallel systems.

So, dear reader, I hope we’ve covered the Super League story sufficiently. It seems like UEFA is trying to stall and delay until the point they’ll actually have to approve this thing.

That’s when A22’s work really starts. And if they can attract some clubs, that’s when football gets it LIV Golf moment.

That will be when the rubber really meets the road. But all we’ve really seen so far are a couple of ugly skidmarks.

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