FootBiz newsletter #84: Champions League permutations, Big Ange's future and what to do with Man United

It was a game of huge consequence. Of these two Premier League goliaths, two of the 10 richest clubs in the world (and the top two by operating income, per Forbes) only one could win, and in turn save their season by qualifying for the Champions League.

For that winner, this year’s embarrassing Premier League performances could be somewhat forgiven, if not forgotten. 100 million reasons for the pain to be softened and to believe that the future could be brighter.

For the loser, darkness. Darker than the usual darkness. A mood of deep, deep black and a hole that it will be hard to climb out of.

And so it was that after a game of football that you would expect from the 16th and 17th best teams in the Premier League (or possibly the Championship) that Tottenham Hotspur won the Europa League.

The story of the night was Ange Postecoglou, who had spent most of the season slowly drowning, refusing to change the way his team played in spite of defeat after defeat, forlornly insisting he always wins a trophy in his second seasons even as that looked evermore comedic and unlikely. He was expected to be sacked after this game and still might be, but he will get a night or two to celebrate as Spurs ponder their direction.

Postecoglou had faced a lot of questions about his future in the run-up to the game and then afterwards admitted he would be “disappointed” if the club did decide to go in a different direction, but that in itself doesn’t seem like something that would change the mind of chairman Daniel Levy, chief football officer Scott Munn, new CEO Vinai Venkatesham or whoever is making the decision. 

Munn was reported as being on the way out of the club, while Fabio Paratici is expected to return. How much of this say on axing Ange is Levy’s, Munn’s or the man who Spurs rate so highly that they’ve stuck by him through a global football ban? 

Coming into the game it felt as if Spurs would stick with their squad but turf out their manager if things didn’t go well, while at United it was more like the manager was safe but nobody else could say the same. 

After canvassing a number of people who cover Spurs, none thought Postecoglou would survive this game - even if they won. I didn’t bother them again after the final whistle, cognisant that it was likely the busiest few minutes of their entire season, but the Spurs hierarchy will surely at least have a second thought… even if they still decide a change is for the best. 

Winning the competition will change the career of ‘Big Ange’ whatever happens with his employment status. Already a sort of cartoonish figure for his absolute commitment to the football his teams play and with a catchphrase of his own — “mate” — he now becomes a cult figure among Spurs fans and a historic figure regardless. Postecoglou is the first coach not from Europe or Argentina to win a European trophy of any description. If nothing else, the next job he gets is suddenly a lot better than it might have been. 

And what now for Manchester United?

They drank at the last chance saloon, didn’t make it to the restroom in time and then got thrown out after the last bus had already gone. It’s left them without the extra £100m that they prayed for but scantly deserved, and fears of a stinging austerity period from penny-pinching upper management would appear well-founded. 

The biggest question, though, is where do you start in fixing this?

United stumped up big money to bring Ruben Amorim to Old Trafford, one of the hottest young coaches in Europe and the first coaching hire of the INEOS era. Amorim has been woeful. He has the worst numbers of any United coach in history. He has not been able to improve the performances of seemingly any player in the squad, while the system he insists on playing doesn’t suit the players and thus fails to get anything out of them. If you are a system coach, your system needs to elevate talent. Look at Oliver Glasner.

While Amorim didn’t feel in any danger coming into the game, and you would expect INEOS continue with him as much as anything because he’s their man and they’ve invested a lot in him, the future doesn’t look particularly bright with him at the helm. After the game, the Portuguese offered to walk without any compensation if the fans and the board want him gone. You have to at least consider it based on the job he’s done so far… 

A bloated squad of overpaid under-performers will get a lot of the blame, but when players play well before joining the club and then again after leaving it becomes more difficult to lay the blame at their feet. Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s public admission that United’s data capabilities are years behind rivals and the cuts to the scouting department don’t exactly give confidence that the squad would be improved anyway, whoever they bring in. 

The Glazers will get their portion of the blame too, having taken huge amounts out of the club, while Ratcliffe’s management since assuming sporting control means he becomes a target both for the failures of the Glazer family and also the more recent management decisions under his watch. The optimism that abounded when he invested in the club has not just evaporated, if scientists looked for it with a microscope they would likely find no evidence it ever existed. 

Trying to find the positives for United is difficult but the reality is that not being in European competition next year when basically half their domestic rivals are will drastically improve their Premier League performance. With their wage bill and no distractions in midweek they should be challenging for the top four (or at worst top six) with Manchester City, Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace and possibly more fighting their way through fixture congestion and playing Saturday-Tuesday-Sunday-Wednesday on repeat for six months. 

Speaking of fixture congestion, one final punch in the gut for these United players.

They fly to Malaysia and Hong Kong for a post-season tour next week.

That’ll be a fun plane ride as Spurs players jet off on their holidays.

Our biggest-ever newsletter today with 15 stories covered and nearly 5,000 words. If you haven’t gone premium yet, then at least consider it today. Here’s the rest…

Table of Contents

• Prem’s wild European chase

• The financial implications

• PL rivals cheer Leicester charges

• World Cup tickets subject to “dynamic pricing”

• Eagles have their wings clipped?

• CONMEBOL fires warning shot at Brazil

• Second-tier clubs want say in Mexican reforms

• M&A Murmurs

• Blackburn owners under fire over women’s relegatio …

• Analysis: pyramid needs investment, not just the e …

• Still waiting on Southampton

Prem’s wild European chase

While the Premier League campaign had all its most fundamental issues sorted earlier than ever this year, with Liverpool seemingly sealing the title months ago and the three promoted clubs giving up on survival some time around Halloween.

But there is still a huge amount of uncertainty around the European places.

Manchester City beat Bournemouth on Tuesday to make this a tiny bit cleaner, but it’s still fairly complex. Allow us to try and explain.

Fourth and fifth get the Champions League for certain, sixth gets Europa for certain and seventh gets nothing as things stand. Here is the current lay of the land with fixture information and what they must do:

4. CL spot - Newcastle - 66pts: home vs Everton, win and in, already guaranteed Europa at worst

5. CL spot - Chelsea - 66pts: away vs Nottm Forest, win and in

6. EL spot - Aston Villa - 66pts: away vs Man United, need to better Newcastle and/or Chelsea’s result

7. Nothing* - Nottm Forest - 65pts: home vs Chelsea, must win and hope Villa or Newcastle don’t win. Guaranteed at least Conference League.

(We are ignoring the possibility of Aston Villa winning by double digits to overtake Newcastle and Chelsea)

*Very likely to be European spot

The complicating factors are:

• If Chelsea win the Conference League final vs Real Betis, they automatically qualify for the Europa League next season. Should they already have qualified for the Champions League by finishing top five, or Europa by finishing sixth, then their Europa spot would go to seventh in the table

• If Chelsea win the Conference League final but manage to finish seventh, then the team that finishes eight would get a Conference League berth - a straight shootout between Brighton (58pts, away vs Spurs) and Brentford (55pts, away vs Wolves).

All clear? Yeah, thought so.

The financial implications

As we’ve covered plenty, there’s a big difference between qualifying for the Champions League (75% of UEFA competition prize money) and the Conference League, which pays out around 8% of UEFA’s €3.3bn pot. Some clubs are walking that tightrope this week, and if they fall on the wrong side then it could be pretty painful, with the remote possibility that a team sitting in the Champions League places with one game to go misses out on Europe entirely.

By our estimates, the difference could be around €90m-€100m for a club like Chelsea who boast solid past performances in Europe.

The difference could be one deflection, one bad refereeing decision or one missed tackle. VAR will never have been under so much pressure.

The revenue difference between an English club playing in the UEFA Champions League (UCL) and the UEFA Europa Conference League (UECL) is significant and depends on three key factors:

1. Base Participation Payments - Champions League: €18.62 million per club, Conference League: €3.17 million per club
   Difference: ~€15.5 million

2. Performance bonuses - Champions League: Max. ~€70m per club, Conference League: Max. €7m per club
   Difference: Up to €60m

3. Value Pillar - Champions League: Up to €30m per PL club, Conference League: Up to €3m per club
   Difference: Up to €25m

So while there are a ton of variables based on how deep a team goes in the competition or their previous performances in Europe, roughly the total estimated revenues comparison looks like this:

In summary, a top English club playing in the Champions League can earn 10-20x more than one in the Conference League, even with similar performance. For Premier League clubs, CL qualification is a financial game-changer worth far more than winning either domestic cup competition.

PL rivals cheer Leicester charges

Metaphorical champagne corks were popping in boardrooms all over the country on Tuesday morning – 30 years ago when the likes of Peter Hill-Wood was Chairman of Arsenal it would have been real champagne – with the news that Leicester City have been charged with three alleged breaches of Premier League rules.

There has been a strong feeling at rival clubs that Leicester pulled a fast one earlier last year by avoiding PSR breaches and an inevitable points deduction this season when an independent commission ruled that the Premier League were unable to charge them for overspending during the 2022/23 campaign as they had been relegated to the Championship by the time they filed their accounts in June 2023.

The Premier League appealed that decision, and while an arbitration panel upheld the independent commission’s original judgement they also ruled that the Premier League could charge Leicester for alleged breaches during the 2022/23 season, which they spent in the Championship.

Leicester reported losses of more than £200 million over the three-year reporting period ending last summer, significantly higher than their permitted loss of £81m, which was adjusted down from £105m due to spending one season in the EFL. As a result the Premier League have issued the club with three charges relating to the PSR breach, failure to file their accounts on time and alleged non-cooperation with the Premier League.

To compound Leicester’s problems changes to both the Premier League and EFL’s regulations made last month mean that any sanction imposed by one organisation can how be applied by the other for the first time, exposing them to the risk of a points deduction in the Championship next season.

Leicester have been walking a PSR tightrope for some time, with legal challenges led by Nick De Marco KC twice enabling them to escape previous charges by both the Premier League and EFL, but at the risk of mixing metaphors they appear to have finally hit a brick wall. It is fair to say that from the executives and football staff FootBiz have spoken to, other clubs are not sympathetic.

World Cup tickets subject to “dynamic pricing”

FIFA are planning to use so-called dynamic pricing when ticket sales begin for next year’s World Cup, according to The Times.

The variable pricing model, where the cost of tickets fluctuates depending on the level of demand, is standard practice for entertainment events in the United States and has been used by FIFA when selling tickets for this summer’s Club World Cup.

While the price of many Club World Cup tickets has been slashed due to limited sales however, the opposite scenario is anticipated next summer with prices for most matches likely to surge. Dynamic pricing is used for the Super Bowl and average ticket prices for Philadelphia Eagles’ victory over Kansas City Chiefs in February were $6,900, producing around half a billion dollars in ticket revenue from one game.

FIFA sources told The Times that dynamic pricing would only be used tickets that go on sale to the general public, rather than those sold by the national associations of competing countries, which will be available at fixed prices.

Around 6.5m tickets are expected to be sold for the World Cup’s 104 matches. America is the most expensive country on Earth to attend sports events, and the rest of the world is about to find that out.  

Eagles have their wings clipped?

Crystal Palace may need to resolve their long-standing ownership issues more quickly than anticipated if Olympique Lyonnais qualify for the Europa League this weekend.

Lyon finished sixth in Ligue 1, qualifying for the Conference League, but if Paris Saint-Germain beat relegation battlers Reims in the French Cup final then Lyon will be entered into the Europa League.

John Textor is the majority owner of Lyon and owns 43% of Palace, and although he has just 25% of the votes (with chairman Steve Parish having the casting vote) that is still likely to present issues to UEFA’s club financial control body (CFCB).

While the deadline for resolving these issues is March 1, the eventual FA Cup winners were still months away from continental qualification while Lyon are still not even sure of a place in Europa. There is confidence that a solution can be reached, with UEFA increasingly understanding about multi-club investors owning stakes in different clubs. UEFA officials have already been in conversation with Textor over his level of control at the club, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.

In recent seasons clubs have found a number of ways to resolve issues.

Tony Bloom reduced his stake in Union Saint-Gilloise to 25% to further demonstrate he had no controlling interest, Aston Villa reduced their interest in Vitoria SC to 29% and Red Bull made changes at board level. Alternatively, Toulouse, Nice, Girona and now Nottingham Forest have all used blind trusts to distance themselves from other clubs under the same ownership group. It should be simple enough.

The complicating factors here are twofold:

1. Textor’s future at Palace is in question. It’s less than two weeks since The Guardian reported he was still trying to buy out the other owners, but that would only deepen the issues described above. Having previously failed to buy a majority stake in the club, Textor had declared his intention to sell but that was when Everton was still on the market and before his latest volte-face. If he were to sell his stake, Josh Harris and David Blitzer have first refusal on those shares (per The Athletic) but the revenues disappearing from Eagle Football would further imperil the IPO that has been ‘imminent’ for nearly a year. It’s complicated.

2. Lyon may not even be allowed into the Europa League. The club is already provisionally relegated from Ligue 1 by the DNCG at the end of the season. In a decision taken in November, the DNCG cited the club’s miserable financial situation, with over €500m debt. Textor has insisted there is “no chance” his club is relegated but a report from L’Equipe in March stated that Lyon’s January sales had not been sufficient to avoid relegation. Qualifying for the Champions League, a cash influx from an IPO or any number of solutions for Eagle Football have failed to materialise. UEFA may take a dim view of Lyon’s financial state.

Considering Crystal Palace fans have already protested Textor’s plans for the club, one thing is for sure, they would never forgive the American if his business interests prevented them from their first-ever European campaign.

Older supporters of the club will remember finishing third in the top flight, only to be denied a European campaign as English clubs were banned from continental football in the wake of the Heysel Stadium disaster.

To be denied another European tour because a Qatari sports investment beat Reims in the French Cup final would be something else entirely, and the irony of Textor cheering on Nasser al-Khelaifi’s team — given their public battles — is not lost on many in French football.

Palace close their season at Anfield on Sunday in a preview of the Community Shield.

You’d forgive Palace’s players if they relaxed a bit playing away at the champions, given this week they’ve won the FA Cup, partied and then secured their highest-ever Premier League points total with a win over Wolves on Tuesday night.

The plan is not to let up, however, as they could jump up to 10th with a win. That would mean around an extra £6m in prize money from the Premier League, far outstripping the £2m they got for winning at Wembley last weekend.

CONMEBOL fires warning shot at Brazil

CONMEBOL has written to its member federations to remind them to observe the rules regarding third-party interference in governance.

This comes as the Brazilian confederation (CBF) deals with the fallout of Ednaldo Rodrigues’ removal from his post as president by a court in Rio de Janeiro. With the federation originally saying they would appeal to the supreme court, CONMEBOL’s ears clearly pricked up at the prospect.

While Rodrigues has now dropped this appeal and paved the way for a successor to resume normal business at the CBF, the South American federation was keen to remind its constituents that political intervention is against FIFA and CONMEBOL rules.

The CBF is holding an election on Sunday with a seemingly foregone conclusion now that Rodrigues has confirmed he will not stand.

Only one candidate successfully registered, Samir Xaud, and thus the president-elect of the Roraima Football Federation, a small state with limited influence in Brazilian top-tier football, will soon become its most powerful administrator.

Second-tier clubs want say in Mexican reforms

Second-tier clubs in Mexico are trying to have their say amid Mexican football’s ongoing reforms, filing a claim with the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) against Liga MX and the Mexican football federation (FMF) over the lack of promotion and relegation.

Promotion to Liga MX from the second division, Liga Expansión, was paused during the Covid pandemic with many second-tier clubs struggling to make ends meet. One club in the claim, Cimarrones de Sonora, just took a season off from playing as they sought to address their deep financial issues, and promotion has never resumed amid this backdrop of financial uncertainty.

Liga MX owners remain deep in negotiations with private equity giant Apollo about an investment that would modernise and professionalise the league, and have spent six months working on the structure and details of the deal negotiated by former president Juan Carlos Rodriguez, who resigned after clashing with owners on certain pillars of the agreement.

Representing the second-tier teams is lawyer Roberto Carlezzo, who is best known in football for fronting Chile’s claim that they should replace Ecuador in the 2022 World Cup. He was ultimately unsuccessful, though Ecuador were deducted points, and has appointed a London-based PR firm to help publicise his latest case.

The timing of the claim is significant, with Liga MX owners due to meet next week and big decisions to be made on the future of Mexican football.

M&A Murmurs

Goal Capital are set to buy 49.9% of Liga MX side Puebla, according to reports in Mexico, as investors begin to flood into the league ahead of the anticipated reforms.

ESPN’s John Sutcliffe has described the buyer as a British investment group, while Medio Tiempo has reported they already have some investment interests in Major League Soccer. A Mexican group had also been keen on buying the club.

According to those same reports there is an option to buy the rest of the club in 2026.

Puebla are one of four clubs who must be sold once the league takes a private equity injection because the new governance would prevent multi-club ownership. Puebla is currently owned by Grupo Salinas, a huge Mexican conglomerate that also owns Mazatlán FC and TV Azteca, which has broadcast contracts with a number of Liga MX clubs.

Part of the Apollo deal would see media rights centralise, with Liga MX the world’s biggest sports league to not have centralised broadcast rights. Investors anticipate the centralisation coupled with a new, modernised governing body and closer ties to Major League Soccer will see the league fulfil its undoubted potential.

Blackburn owners under fire over women’s relegation

Blackburn Rovers’ women’s team has been relegated from the Women’s Super League 2 (WSL2), the second tier of English women’s football, after the club opted not to meet the competition’s licensing requirements around facilities, staffing, and player welfare.

The Lancashire club was given until Monday to confirm to WSL Football—the body overseeing the top two divisions of the women’s game in England—whether it would fund the necessary upgrades to retain its tier-two status for the 2025–26 season.

Rovers had finished second from bottom in the Championship, which is set to be rebranded as WSL2 next season, narrowly avoiding relegation on sporting grounds, ahead of Sheffield United.

A key meeting between club leadership and team representatives took place on Monday, 12 May, following a week of uncertainty since players and staff were first notified on Tuesday, 13 May.

On Tuesday, the club confirmed it would not provide the financial backing required to meet second-tier standards, with The Guardian reporting players were due to find out when the public did until outraged staff informed them.

Under FA regulations, any club that voluntarily withdraws from a league must re-enter at least two tiers below. A recent precedent was set by Reading, who dropped into the fifth tier ahead of the 2024–25 season after financial instability and a failed last-minute takeover.

WSL CEO Nikki Doucet called the decision “a sad day for women’s football,” adding:

“Our hearts go out to the players, staff and fans at Blackburn Rovers FC Women who are affected by this decision to withdraw from the Barclays Women’s Super League 2.

“We have been working with the club all season to prevent this outcome, and we are disappointed it has come to this.”

Analysis: pyramid needs investment, not just the elite

Just two days after new minority shareholder Alexis Ohanian told the BBC that Chelsea Women “will be a billion-dollar franchise one day,” Blackburn Rovers withdrew their team from the newly formed WSL2 because of the owners’ reluctance to meet the costs involved. Blackburn said that “evolving demands placed on second-tier clubs have become unsustainable under our current model,” a reference to the enhanced minimum standard requirements regarding player wages and medical cover that have been brought in by operating company, WSL Football, this season.

WSL Football have not published details of the new minimum standards, but they essentially involve a commitment to running a fully professional set-up in the second tier. A source at another WSL2 told FootBiz that the higher standards “are not particularly onerous,” but added that they would involve most clubs at that level being willing to fund losses of between £750,000 and £1m per year.

Blackburn’s parent company, Venkys London Limited, reported profits of £1.8m last year, although without the £22.9m sale of Adam Wharton to Crystal Palace would have posted huge losses so their underlying financial situation is challenging. Other WSL clubs find themselves in a similar position, with Reading withdrawing from the second tier 12 months ago and third-tier Wolves deciding against applying for promotion this season because of the costs involved.

For all the excitement generated by Ohanian’s investment in Chelsea and the club’s $245m valuation, convincing owners to fund women’s teams throughout the pyramid is proving challenging. WSL Football’s mantra is that clubs should be investing ahead of revenues – a strategy that has proved successful in growing other women’s sports, most notably cricket in the UK and India – but as another WSL2 executive put it to FootBiz: “It’s easy to say that when it’s other people’s money.”

Everton clear the decks

This summer is a time for new beginnings at Everton, with the Friedkin Group now able to fully take stock and move the club forward as they start life in a new stadium.

The squad will also see some turnover as the Toffees recover from years of cash-strapped sticking plasters and some financial mismanagement under Farhad Moshiri.

Four senior players are confirmed to be leaving the club — Abdoulaye Doucoure, Ashley Young, Asmir Begovic and Joao Virginia — while others could follow as Seamus Coleman, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Michael Keane and Idrissa Gueye are all out of contract. Coleman is the most likely to extend his stay, albeit possibly in a coaching or hybrid player-coach role. Orel Mangala, Jesper Lindstrom, Jack Harrison, Armando Broja and Charly Alcaraz are all on loan and have expiring deals, with decisions being made this week on their futures.

It should represent something of a clean slate for Everton’s new hierarchy, and while the returning David Moyes guided them well clear of relegation, the first summer window under TFG is not without risk.

Still waiting on Southampton

Southampton are hoping to hire Will Still, 32, as their new head coach according to the BBC.

The Saints sacked Russell Martin in December and replaced him with Ivan Juric, who was also dispensed with after the club’s relegation was confirmed.

Looking to bounce back immediately, the south coast club were expected to reignite their interest in Sheffield Wednesday’s Danny Rohl, but with Wednesday still holding out for a high compensation figure and Rohl fielding interest from other clubs, it appears Southampton have decided on Still.

Born in Belgium to English parents, Still has coached in Belgium and France, making his name as the youngest coach in a top European league when he took over at Reims aged 30.

Lens hired Still last June, bringing his two brothers with him on his coaching staff, but the Englishman has decided to step down and move back to England as his wife battles illness.

"For multiple reasons, the main reason behind my decision is that I need to go back home," Still told reporters on Saturday.