FootBiz newsletter #75: Real Madrid have clear path to Xabi Alonso as Leeds and Burnley secure promotion

As much as there were results of consequence in the Premier League this weekend, Easter tends to always be much more about the EFL.

With a slate of games on Friday and then again on Monday, the Championship, League One and League Two all took big steps towards finalising their ups and downs this season.

Leeds United and Burnley finally managed to shake off Sheffield United in the season-long, three-way race for automatic promotion. Burnley’s win against United in the late kick-off yesterday secured promotion for themselves and Leeds, and while there remains a title to be decided the immediate thought is of celebration and then planning for the top flight.

Leeds are the best-positioned promoted club to survive, with the underlying data suggesting they should have won the league by a much wider margin. That partly explains why questions persist over whether Daniel Farke is the best man to get the most out of a talented squad, but given that the last six teams to be promoted have been instantly relegated they will obviously face a battle. In related news, getting promoted is also fairly bad for a manager’s longer-term job security.

Burnley’s promotion was built on an outrageously tight defence but they will need to find more in attack, even with Marcus Edwards signing permanently from Sporting CP. The winger, like Sunderland’s Enzo Le Fée, has no business playing in the Championship and instead is more of a symbol of the financial might of England’s second tier (and the rewards on offer for reaching its top division).

With those two promoted, Premier League clubs receive a few million extra in parachute payments that Burnley and Leeds will no longer need. The rich get richer.

There is a three-way battle for the last automatic promotion spot in League One, where reality TV stars Wrexham (86 points) lead Wycombe Wanderers (84), Charlton Athletic (82) and Stockport County (81) with two games to go in the chase for the Championship. Wrexham play Charlton next week, while Wycombe play Stockport on the final day.

And though there are three automatic promotion spots in League Two, with two games remaining we still have no teams promoted. Only one team in the top eight won on Monday, Doncaster Rovers, and that victory sent them top. Port Vale are a point behind and likely to join them in League One, while Bradford City and Walsall are battling for third.

Wimbledon’s defeat on Monday means that if they want automatic promotion then they will need a comeback reminiscent of the bearded bloke that Easter is all about.

And I did have ChatGPT create an image of Wimbledon emerging from the tomb of Jesus Christ but I’m worried it’s a little blasphemous so let’s just get into the newsletter…

Table of Contents

• Club World Cup teams face tax bill

• Ancelotti to Brazil gathers steam

• Club World Cup verdict tomorrow

• Extra time is here to stay

• Reading takeover deadline arrives

• Southgate’s TED Talk future

• 64-team World Cup idea won’t die 

• Regulator search could be over

Club World Cup teams face tax bill

FIFA are facing complex negotiations with US authorities before the Club World Cup after failing to secure tax exemptions for the 32 competing clubs, per The Guardian.

At least 29 clubs from outside the US will be competing in the newly expanded competition this summer, including Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Chelsea and Manchester City, and will be left with a significant tax bill on their earnings, which could be $125.8m for the winners.

FIFA obtained exemptions from a range of taxes for 2026 World Cup games in the US, with competing nations exempted from many city, state and ticket-sales taxes, but with the schedule for the Club World Cup put together at shorter notice it has been unable to secure similar dispensation. The world governing body announced a huge prize fund for the tournament of $1bn (£754m) in March, but without tax agreements clubs could be left with bills of tens of millions of dollars to the US tax authorities on top of tax payable in their home countries.

Ancelotti to Brazil gathers steam

On Thursday we mentioned that the immediate aftermath of Real Madrid’s Champions League exit saw questions asked of Carlo Ancelotti.

A day later, things had calmed and the Madrid-based newspaper duo of Marca and AS were pretty unequivocal that the Italian, five times a Champions League winner as a coach, would decide his future at the end of the season but planned to stay.

Marca’s top Real Madrid correspondent, Jose Felix Diaz, reported in fairly clear (if condescending) terms that:

“He's said it a thousand times, and he'll repeat it again as soon as the opportunity arises… Carlo Ancelotti's sole and absolute priority is to continue at Real Madrid.

“He's clear about that, and the club's management knows it. He feels strong and capable of fighting for everything until his last breath. Not Brazil, nor any other possibility that may present itself.

“The interest in the Italian has been acknowledged by all, and after the dismissal of Dorival Junior, they tried again to convince Ancelotti to take over as national team coach, but the Real Madrid manager's response was forceful: ‘I have a contract with Real Madrid and I'm happy. As long as they don't say otherwise, I won't listen to any proposals.’”

“The presence at the Bernabéu last Wednesday of Diego Fernándes, a businessman linked to the CBF [Brazilian Federation] did not imply any meeting with Ancelotti or his entourage, as the Italian made his position clear at the time of the latest request from the Brazilian Confederation for him to take charge of the national team.

“It's not that he postponed his decision, but rather that he made his desire very clear: to fulfill his contract with Real Madrid.”

Fast forward 48 hours and The Athletic’s David Ornstein broke the story (co-written with Madrid correspondent Mario Cortegana) that Ancelotti was in “advanced talks” with the CBF and is expected to leave this summer, with Xabi Alonso already sounded out to replace him.

Amazingly, given the track record of who wrote it, the Madrid media effectively ignored this report. Ancelotti did not deny it outright in his press conference though, only saying he will speak about his future at the end of the season.

Even the end of Madrid’s season is unclear, though.

And particularly so given the context of this story.

Madrid’s final La Liga game is on May 25, but they then have the Club World Cup beginning in mid-June. The complicating factor is that there is an international break before the Club World Cup and Brazil want their new coach in place for those games.

With that in mind, Ancelotti was asked about whether he would clarify his future before or after the Club World Cup and he simply said “I don’t know”. Which makes you think he probably does.

It’s pretty rare that a story of this significance gets glossed over to such an extent, but it tells you a lot about the unique media environment in Madrid, which probably deserves 3000 words of its own… just not today.

The obvious next question involves Xabi Alonso, and fortunately Bayer Leverkusen CEO Fernando Carro, who has never met a camera he doesn’t want to speak to, cleared things up fairly neatly for all involved.

"From the moment we signed Xabi, we knew he was going to be a great coach, and from the moment you sign one, you have to prepare others. His signing wasn't just a one-off. First, we signed him for a year and a half until 2024, and then until 2026.

"By signing him until 2026, we had confidence he'd stay. We can sleep peacefully, have a good breakfast, and be prepared for any eventuality. We have a gentleman's agreement, and if a team he's played for comes along, we can sit down."

"We're not naive, but the truth is that the coach is important, and that's why we're preparing next season's team with him. 

“He's fully involved and integrated into the preparations. If, in the end, there's interest from another club and he's interested, we have a relationship that would have to be discussed. It's not our wish, but we're clear that the decision has to be made within three or four weeks; we can't wait until the end of the season.”

That sounds to us like Xabi Alonso will be Real Madrid’s coach next season. It will be increasingly difficult for the local media to not cover that as it becomes more clear.

Club World Cup verdict tomorrow

We are expecting a verdict on which CONCACAF club will complete the Club World Cup line-up tomorrow when the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) delivers its judgement on León’s appeal against their expulsion.

With Grupo Pachuca making moves to quickly sell 51% of León so that they no longer breach the multi-club rules of the newly expanded competition, there remains a chance that the Liga MX club is allowed to play in this summer’s 32-team global jamboree.

Should CAS uphold their expulsion then FIFA have confirmed there will be a playoff for their berth in Group D (opponents: Chelsea, Flamengo, ES Tunis).

That game was originally reported to be between LAFC of MLS and Club America, but reports have since claimed Cruz Azul could replace their Liga MX counterparts while Deportivo Alajuelense (Costa Rica) are also pursuing legal avenues to find a place in the tournament that they believe they are entitled to.

Extra time is here to stay

UEFA’s decision to maintain extra time in the knockout ties of their club competitions was vindicated by a goal rush at the first opportunity last week.

While none of the four Champions League quarter finals went to extra time, and two of them were settled long before the end of the second period of regulation 90 minutes, the Europa League was a different story. Manchester United’s stunning comeback against Lyon grabbed the headlines, but there were nine goals scored in extra time across three European ties last Thursday. In addition to the five goals at Old Trafford there were two at Lazio and two at Rapid Vienna.

UEFA’s club competitions committee discussed a proposal to scrap extra time and go straight to penalties if scores in the second leg are level after 90 minutes earlier this month to ease player workload, but it was rejected amid fears it would lead to more negative football. Following last week’s drama it will be a while before the issue is revisited. 

Reading takeover deadline arrives

Reading fans face a nervous wait to discover if Dai Yongge has met an EFL deadline to sell the club by the end of today.

The Chinese businessman has agreed a £25 million sale package with American lawyer Rob Couhig, who has accepted a truncated due diligence process and offered more of the money up front in order to facilitate completion, but there have been no updates issued on the progress of the deal for the last 10 days.

The EFL have already granted Yongge one extension to the previous 4 April deadline, and could do so again if they are convinced the sale will happen, but will need to see firm evidence that the deal is progressing. For his part Couhig needs to demonstrate source and sufficiency of funds to cover both the purchase price and two years’ running costs, which given Reading’s recent losses amounts to another £30m.

Noel Hunt has done an excellent job with a threadbare squad to keep the Royals in playoff contention and the reward for Couhig, should he complete the deal to buy Reading, is beginning to look like a two-legged playoff semi-final against the club he sold last year, Wycombe Wanderers.

Southgate’s TED Talk future

The wisdom of Gareth Southgate’s decision to avoid a quick return to football management after stepping down as England manager last summer has been demonstrated by the fate of his assistant, Steve Holland.

The former England number two was sacked by Japanese club Yokohama F Marinos last week after only four months in charge, with his side 18th in the J1 League. The Marinos won only one of their 11 league games under Holland, although did progress to the quarter-finals of the Asian Football Confederation Champions League, where they will Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al-Nassr next weekend, a fixture which appears to have strongly influenced the club’s decision.

Holland has coveted a managerial career for some time after spending eight years as Southgate’s assistant following eight years at Chelsea, first as the club’s reserve manager before spending six years as the club’s first team assistant manager. The 54-year-old has strong coaching credentials, having won Premier League titles under Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte at Chelsea, before leaving the club for a full-time role with England.

Southgate’s next move remains unclear, and he may opt to stay out of football altogether. The former England manager has been pursuing other interests, particularly thought leadership, under the guidance of his new advisor Jimmy Worrall, the founder of Leaders in Football. Among recent projects Southgate delivered the Richard Dimbleby Lecture last month, has spoken at Harvard Business School, and is working on a book, Lessons on Leadership, which will be published in October.

64-team World Cup idea won’t die 

The shadow boxing over controversial proposals to expand the World Cup to 64 teams in 2030 continues apace.

Somewhat appropriately given Saudi Arabia’s new-found status as the big-fight capital of the world, the Kingdom’s sports minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki bin Faisal, was the latest to land a punch last weekend by saying that his country could “deliver” an expanded tournament when they host the World Cup four years later. Given Saudi’s increasingly close relationship with FIFA his comments could be significant, not least as Gianni Infantino has committed to considering the proposal.

“I mean we’re ready, and or we will be ready, inshallah,” Prince Abdulaziz said at the Saudi Grand Prix in Jeddah. “If that’s a decision that FIFA takes and thinks that that’s a good decision for everyone, then we’re more than happy to deliver on it.”

CONMEBOL president Alejandro Dominguez will officially propose the expansion at next month’s FIFA Congress in Paraguay, which will host one of three matches in South America in 2030 before the rest of the tournament shifts to Spain, Portugal and Morocco, although other heavyweights have rejected the idea. UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin, Asian Football Confederation president Sheikh Salman bin Ibrahim Al Khalifa and CONCACAF boss Victor Montagliani have all publicly outlined their opposition.

Until FIFA definitively rule it out however, the idea remains very much in play.

Regulator search could be over

The long-running search for a Chair for the new Independent Football Regulator has taken another twist according to Sky News’ Mark Kleinman, who reported over the weekend that former Channel 4 director David Kogan is set to be recommended to Sir Keir Starmer, who will formally make the appointment.

Former BBC producer Kogan set up his own media rights agency, Reel Enterprises, which went on to specialise in sport. The 67-year-old has provided media rights advice to the Premier League, EFL and UEFA, and last year acted as the lead negotiator for the Women's Super League in agreeing their new five-year deal with Sky Sports. He has also advised the Six Nations, the NFL and the International Olympic Committee.

Kogan was not on the initial shortlist of former Aston Villa chief executive Christian Purslow, Kick It Out Chair Sanjay Bhandari and Professor Sir Ian Kennedy, but his wide experience in football and balanced portfolio of previous clients make are likely to make him a well-regarded appointment.