FootBiz newsletter #66: Wembley's deference to Saudi chief, Apple's MLS numbers halve and more

A revealing vignette of the current state of English football occurred in the Wembley Suite before Sunday’s Carabao Cup final between Liverpool and Newcastle.

In the final minutes before kick-off, the great and the good of English football queued patiently whilst waiting for the opportunity to pass on their best wishes to Yasir Al-Rumayyan, chairman of Newcastle and governor of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.

In a room filled with Premier League, club and FA powerbrokers, Al-Rumayyan was undoubtedly the star attraction. FA chief executive Mark Bullingham was among those happy to bide his time to speak to Al-Rumayyan, who was later seen on the Wembley pitch lifting the trophy in front of Newcastle’s delirious fans following their 2-1 win. “That’s the first!” Al-Rumayyan shouted. “And it’s not going to be the last!”

Al-Rumayyan's decision to invest £315million of PIF’s estimated £710billion assets on Newcastle four years ago has undoubtedly transformed the club, but also the Premier League, with many unintended consequences.

While the Premier League’s investigation into Manchester City’s alleged Financial Fair Play breaches was already under way and they have become the poster child for the league’s legal issues, it’s worth emphasising that many of the other regulatory problems they are currently facing actually stem directly from the Newcastle takeover; the introduction of Associated Party Transaction regulations and resultant legal challenges, the more vigorous enforcement of profit and sustainability rules that has led to points deductions, the repeated demonstration of the inadequacy of the Premier League rulebook, and ongoing discussions over introducing new Squad Cost Control Rules.

Premier League chief executive Richard Masters was also in the Wembley Suite, and will surely have congratulated Al-Rumayyan, but it would have been forgiven if he was not first in the queue.

Table of Contents

• Freedman jumps ship

• Apple-MLS subs drop 50%

• MLS and Liga MX dance again

• Authorities float Valladolid intervention

• Brentford closer to selling stake

• Mexican presidential race

• Another Victory for Bloom

• CONCACAF could get feisty

• Saudi moves

While we’re kicking things off with Newcastle, having delivered the club’s first domestic trophy in 70 years Eddie Howe is in line for a £3m bonus if he completes a memorable season by returning the club to the Champions League.

Howe earns around £6m-a-year at St James’ Park, but per a report in the Daily Telegraph his salary will increase to £9m next season if his side are competing in the Champions League.

Newcastle are currently one point outside the Champions League qualifying places in sixth, but as a result of Sunday’s final have a game in hand over the rest of the top five.

To go deeper on Newcastle, read Rob’s piece on where they go from here - available to premium subscribers.

Freedman jumps ship

One of the Premier League’s more well-considered sporting directors is jumping ship for a Saudi payday.

Dougie Freedman has garnered much praise for his work securing young talent at Crystal Palace and was reportedly on the shortlist at Manchester United before they brought in the since-fired Dan Ashworth.

But the Scotsman is headed for Saudi second division club Al-Diriyah where he will become Head of Sport.

It is not the first time that Freedman has left Palace for a major payday.

In 2013, Freedman, who was a club legend from his playing days at Palace, stunned fans by jumping ship to manage Bolton Wanderers. The Lancashire club trebled his salary.

Al-Diriyah’s offering is undoubtedly many multiples greater than that, and now all eyes turn to the vacancy in south London.

Former Palace sporting director Iain Moody is expected to be even more involved in a future structure, having operated in the background as a consultant to the club for years under Freedman. Whether he formally replaces the Scot is not yet known, but it is thought that the club wouldn’t be afraid of formally completing his rehabilitation from the 2014 scandal that led to his original ouster. After an investigation, the FA did not charge Moody (or Malky Mackay) as their policy is not to bring charges for private messages between individuals. Moody is known to be genuinely remorseful and insists the texts were not indicative of the person he is, while Parish likes and trusts him.

Elsewhere, Steve Parish will surely at least kick the tyres on Dan Ashworth, though the former Manchester United, Brighton and FA technical director may be in no rush to return to work and could have his sights set higher than Palace regardless.

Apple-MLS subs drop 50%

Industry scuttlebutt has suggested for a while that the Apple-MLS deal was not panning out as either side had necessarily hoped.

There have been vague public comments from relevant executives pointing to a brighter future, which in itself suggests things haven’t been meeting expectations, but we have been rather light on data and reporting.

This week though, Julia Alexander of Puck has something more concrete.

“Since the initial Messi bump, when [Apple] signed up 470,000 subscribers in two months in 2023, sub rates have slowed, with 2024 generating half the number of new or returning subs than 2023.”

There is zero chance that Apple looks to exit the deal until they have gauged the impact of a US-hosted World Cup on those subscriber numbers, but it is one that we will continue to watch.

While many leagues are starting to consider a unified global streaming partner in the wake of flattening and/or declining rights deals, the first major global streaming deal for a football league is not looking like a roaring success.

MLS and Liga MX dance again

Major League Soccer’s All-Star game will once again feature a match between Liga MX’s best players and those of MLS as the two leagues continue to move closer in cooperation.

The 2025 All-Star game is set for Austin, Texas, on July 23 and will repeat last year’s format that sees the neighbouring leagues’ all-star XIs clash. The format has been played in four of the last five years, with the only exception being the 2023 All-Star game when an MLS XI were pumped 5-0 by Arsenal, who were on a pre-season tour Stateside.

It should also serve as an appetiser to a slightly revamped Leagues Cup, the mid-season tournament introduced as part of the wider integration between the two leagues, which is to be played in July and Augu

Only the best 18 MLS teams will now qualify for the 36-team tournament.

Authorities float Valladolid intervention

The opposition party in Valladolid’s local government is presenting a motion that would see local politicians bring together private investors to help buy out the unpopular owner of Real Valladolid, Ronaldo Nazario, while promising collaboration and possibly even investment from the local authorities.

Former Brazil striker Ronaldo has alienated fans with his absentee ownership and lack of investment, and put the club up for sale as he announced a run for president of the Brazilian football federation.

Last week, however, Ronaldo returned to Valladolid for the first time and announced shortly after that he was withdrawing from the race for the CBF presidency after failing to garner any support, placing the club’s future in question once again.

Ronaldo has turned down multiple offers for the club, which is rock-bottom of La Liga, 11 points from safety and near-certain to be relegated with just eight games remaining.

Should Valladolid begin their Segunda campaign poorly next season then it will send the process into further difficulty, with the club’s value already declining and Ronaldo refusing to engage with offers that have been reducing in line with the club’s fortunes.

He claimed that recent bids turned down were “offers that don’t correspond to the value of the club” and that there are no longer any offers - only “chats”.

Pedro Herrero, a local politician, said the need for local government intervention was clear “to prevent the club falling into even worse hands than it is”.

Brentford closer to selling stake

Brentford have received multiple offers of minority investment from American groups who value the club at around £400m, according to City AM.

Owner Matthew Benham has been seeking additional investment for over a year, with merchant bank Rothschild initially appointed to oversee the sales process. FootBiz has been told the club was originally marketed at the £500m mark.

The interested parties have proposed buying differing stakes ranging between 10 and 20 per cent, leaving Benham with a range of options over which partnership to pursue.

The 56-year-old betting and data entrepreneur wants to retain control at Brentford having taking them for League One to become an established Premier League, as well as building the GTech Community Stadium.

While the valuation is still considered steep by many, their financial situation is among the healthiest in the league in a number of ways. They have consistently had the lowest wage bill in the league, or close to it, while steering clear of relegation. They top the table on points:wage+amortisation ratio, showing the value they are getting out of the transfer market and a cheaply assembled squad.

That said, their revenue figures are among the lowest in the league and their income is heavily dependent on broadcast revenue with a need for further diversification. Unlike Brighton, who they are often compared to due to their data-led strategy, they have not made huge transfer profits to drive further investment in their squad though the expectation is that Bryan Mbeumo, Yoann Wissa and Keane Lewis-Potter could follow Ivan Toney in finally generating significant transfer income for the Bees and progressing them into a new phase of their Premier League existence.

Mexican presidential race

Interim president of the Mexican Football Federation (FMF) Mikel Arriola is set to face competition for the permanent post.

Arriola abruptly took over after the resignation of Juan Carlos Rodriguez in December, and was expected in some quarters to become the permanent chief.

But opponents of Arriola - most notably Grupo Pachuca, who were deemed one of the parties most responsible for Rodriguez’s departure - are attempting to find a candidate who will run against him, according to Fox Sports Mexico, with Monterrey president Manuel Filizola the top choice. Benjamin Salinas, whose father is divisive billionaire Ricardo Salinas and whose family owns Mazatlán, is another name in the frame.

Another Victory for Bloom

Brighton owner Tony Bloom has bought a 19.1 per cent stake in Australian A-League club Melbourne Victory.

Sources at Brighton tell FootBiz that the purchase is a personal investment by Bloom and will have no impact on the Premier League club. Bloom’s wife is Australian and the family often holiday in Melbourne.

Bloom also owns 25 per cent of Belgian Cup winners Union Saint-Gilloise, having sold his controlling interest to business partner Alex Muzio after the Pro League side and Brighton both qualified for the 2023/24 Europa League, and has been in talks about making a ~£10m investment into Scottish Premier League club Hearts since last year. That investment has not been closed yet, but Brighton’s data provider Jamestown Analytics is already working with the Edinburgh club to improve their recruitment.

A fan-owned club, Bloom would require 90% of the Friends of Hearts group to approve his investment for him to become a minority shareholder.

CONCACAF could get feisty

It will be interesting to see whether the anti-Trump energy that drove such immense interest in the NHL’s Four Nations Face-off last month will be evident in this week’s CONCACAF Nations League fixtures.

The USMNT will play Panama tonight, a country whose eponymous canal has been loudly targeted by the US president who wishes to return ownership of the strategically important shipping passage to the United States.

Beat Panama and they will face Mexico or Canada, their two nearest neighbours who Trump has aggressively targeted with tariffs as part of his ‘America First’ trade war.

During hockey’s Four Nations Face-off in February, Canadian fans booed the American national anthem, prompting a number of fights on the ice and heightening tension after a surprise US win.

Canada went on to defeat their southern neighbours in the final, however, with the Lionel Messi of ice hockey, Connor McDavid, winning them the trophy in overtime. It was the most-watch hockey game in decade, achieving the rare feat of putting hockey at the centre of sporting discussion in America.

Trump has repeatedly suggested Canada would fare better as a ‘51st state’ and should give up its sovereignty, which had the opposite political effect intended by bolstering support for the liberal party and weakening their conservative rivals amid patriotic, anti-American sentiment.

Saudi moves

Saad Al Lazeez is leaving his role as vice chair of the Saudi Pro League, according to The Athletic.

Former Chelsea technical director Michael Emenalo, who has been key in driving the SPL’s sporting strategy, is expected to step up and take on more responsibility going forwards.

The most interesting part of the story (for us) was that Al Lazeez “is expected to take up another job within football.”

Normally this doesn’t seem like a story that would have made many headlines, which sets off the spidey senses a little and suggests that may well be the crucial detail.

In the name of wild and unserious speculation, I’d note that Newcastle United CEO Darren Eales announced in September he’d be stepping down due to health issues once the club had found a replacement. If Newcastle had a link to Saudi Arabia it could have legs…