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FootBiz newsletter #50: Ligue 1 crisis looming? Naomi Girma, Man City accusations and the end of VAR
A packed newsletter to notch up the half-century mark
Ed Malyon & Matt Hughes
January 23, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 18 minutes
Our fiftieth FootBiz newsletter. How about that?
It’s also our longest ever, so I won’t waffle on in the intro. Probably the biggest segment today is a little bit of depth provided on a genuinely concerning development for the French league. You can read on to get the full story there, but one worry would be that this isn’t just a broadcaster looking to get out of a deal - it’s the first broadcaster looking to get out of a deal.
What about Apple and MLS, which every leaked data point suggests has been a disappointment for the tech giant?
The optimist will always see opportunity in failure and perhaps this bottoming out is the start of a great turnaround for Ligue 1, who might strike gold in starting their own streaming service and lead the way for other major leagues to follow?
It’s possible. It’s just not probable.
We’ve also got some transfery bits (not a word, but it works) given that this month is the only transfery month we have for a while. Have Manchester City broken the rules in coercing an 18 year-old defender to unilaterally break his contract? His current (former?) club certainly thinks so and isn’t afraid to say it.
To start, however, we have a record-breaking moment in womens’ football.
Table of Contents
Naomi feels like a million dollars
Now is the time to add Naomi Girma’s name to your trivia bank.
The San Diego Wave defender, undoubtedly one of the world’s best centre-backs and the USWNT player of the year in 2023, is signing for Chelsea in a $1.1m deal that makes history in women’s football.
Girma has made history by moving to Chelsea
With investment flooding into the women’s game as well as increasing partnership revenues, bigger TV deals and larger attendances, this was inevitable and acts as a milestone of economic development.
“While transfer fees in women’s football are still in their early stages compared to the men’s game, we’re seeing a clear trajectory toward higher valuations as clubs prioritize talent acquisition and retention,” Camryn Novak of Rexana Ventures tells FootBiz. Rexana is a data-led advisory firm that specialises in women’s football.
“This growth will likely accelerate as more clubs achieve financial stability, implement robust player development systems, and embrace global market dynamics.
“As we see the growth in significant transfer fees, it further unlocks transfer revenue as another revenue lever for women's organizations, presenting the opportunity for strategic women's clubs to build towards profitability via player trading. As organizations see these revenues increase, it further incentivizes the development of in-house talent, both through first teams and academies."
Having covered predominantly men’s football for most of my career, one thing I had noted about the transfer market in the women’s game is that a lot of elite players still move clubs on free transfers. An easy example, given it happened this week, is Brazil’s Kerolin moving to Manchester City from the North Carolina Courage on a free after her contract expired. Kerolin was the NWSL MVP in 2023 before missing most of the 2024 season after tearing her ACL.
Kerolin has signed a three-and-a-half year contract with City, however, in a move that is indicative of the improving financial health of leading clubs in women’s football. The improvement of the macro environment suggests we can expect to see longer, bigger contracts which will also lead to higher transfer fees as clubs retain leverage for longer.
“What will be interesting to see is how the increase in transfer fees further contributes to talent inequities between the haves and haves not of the women’s game as we have seen on the men’s side, which could dilute competitiveness amongst leagues,” adds Novak.
“As larger clubs are able to execute larger transfer fees for high profile players, smaller clubs will need to get all the more creative on talent identification in the global market."
French crisis looms again
DAZN’s partnership with Ligue 1 could be short-lived
As I think I’ve written before, I do have some sympathy for the LFP’s disastrous broadcast rights situation because they got very unlucky with the timing of their cycle when their big dream deal fell apart before it had even begun during the pandemic.
So when Telefoot, this new broadcaster, went bust, the French league was left negotiating from a weak, desperate position with a collection of companies who were tightening their purse strings in the wake of Covid and others who they had unceremoniously shunned, including long-term partner Canal+ who took rejection particularly personally.
There is no denying that this contributed to last summer’s debacle, but LFP president Vincent Labrune still deserves plenty of blame for his part in the saga after continuing to tell clubs he’d fetch the €1bn combined price when the deal being negotiated was for around half that.
In the end, after talking of €800m domestic and €200m international rights, Ligue 1 got just €400m from DAZN and then €78.5m from BeIn Sports for French domestic rights.
Which is a worry, and has severely hurt the finances of its constituent clubs, but there appears to be worse news.
According to well-connected sports radio station RMC, DAZN is already looking to renegotiate or activate the escape clause from its deal.
“The league sees this as posturing, but is preparing for all scenarios” assures RMC.
Having tried a number of strategies, including special offers and price reductions, DAZN still has fewer than 500,000 subscribers to its service in France.
Why is that number significant? Well, there is an exit clause that DAZN can activate on December 1st of this year if they haven’t amassed 1.5 million subscribers - which it will not. In fact, it will struggle to get close to 1m.
Will DAZN actually bail out of the deal or are they just hoping to knock down the price? That question will be answered in time, but it is difficult to see how the league’s economics would work at an even lower price tag. Clubs are already hurting, with one Ligue 1 team we spoke to going from a roughly breakeven projection to an €11m annual loss under the DAZN deal.
The LFP’s only real alternative, assuming a new streamer or TV channel doesn’t pop up out of nowhere, is to re-examine the idea of launching their own OTT streaming platform.
As it happens, this was the favoured route of a number of owners last summer when Labrune was busy tying up the DAZN and BeIn deals. Indeed, as he has made clear since, John Textor felt this path was under-explored due to PSG chairman Nasser al-Khelaifi’s influence over Labrune, the league president who he described as Al-Khelaifi’s “lapdog”. Textor was previously owner of FuboTV, a sports streaming platform, and felt the league should have pursued its own media business when bids failed to meet the reserve price but there remain questions over how this would affect club finances.
Spotted schmoozing
In Davos this week to mingle with exceptionally rich people in Versace ski-suits?
David Beckham and Gary Neville.
Norway kills VAR
Our very own Rob Draper wrote earlier this month that VAR is doomed and needs to be scrapped.
Well, news from Norway is that clubs from the top two divisions have voted to formally recommend that exact course of action ahead of their board meeting in March.
Once that is ratified, Norway will become the first country to formally kill off VAR - but they won’t be the last.
If you haven’t read Rob’s piece then it’s here for premium subscribers. You can also upgrade for £3.99 if you haven’t already.
Man City accused of tapping up
Real Valladolid have launched legal action after Manchester City’s tangled pursuit of teenaged defender Juma Bah ended with the centre-back skipping training and depositing his €6m release clause.
Bah had been on loan at Valladolid from AIK Freetown but the relegation-battling La Liga side unsurprisingly exercised their €165k buy option on him after he impressed in the first half of the season.
Valladolid say that despite them exercising that option, Bah did not sign the senior contract with the club and stayed on a youth deal. Signing a senior deal would have raised his release clause to €12m on a B Team contract and €30m in the first-team squad. Inter Milan and Fenerbahce had offered €12m this month in anticipation of that being enough to sign the talented defender.
Valladolid expressed “indignation” at City’s conduct
However, with that contract unsigned, the Spanish federation informed Valladolid on Tuesday that Bah, 18, and his agent had deposited the €6m release clause from his youth contract. This happened on the same day Manchester City had contacted Valladolid asking to open negotiations with Bah.
The Spanish club have accused City of advising the player to break his contract and promised legal action. City have declined to comment.
“The player’s intention, supposedly supported and guided by Manchester City and his agent, has caused great disappointment and indignation within Real Valladolid, which welcomed Juma Bah with open arms and gave him the opportunity of a lifetime,” Valladolid said in a statement.
“The Royal Spanish Football Federation has just confirmed that the player has deposited the amount for the unilateral termination of the contract. In this sense, Real Valladolid informs that it reserves the right to go to the appropriate legal and sporting jurisdictions to exercise its rights and defend its interests.”
Boehled over by cricket
Chelsea co-owner Todd Boehly is considering buying into another blue-chip English sporting institution despite the turbulence that followed his £1bn investment at Stamford Bridge three years ago, with fellow owners Clearlake Capital battling with the American for control of the club.
Sources involved in the discussions have told FootBiz that Boehly held meetings in London this week about making a binding bid in the final round of the Hundred auction next week, in which the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) are selling off 49 per cent of each if the eight cricket franchises that play the sport's latest short format.
The possible Hundred investment has been brought to Boehly by his business partner and fellow Chelsea investor Jonathan Goldstein, who was invited to Lord's as a guest of Marylebone Cricket Club president Mark Nicholas last summer. Lord's is the home ground of London Spirit, the most valuable Hundred franchise that is expected to be sold for between £100m and £150m in next week's auction.
While Boehly is believed to be attracted to the Hundred because he considers the franchises to be relatively cheap, he is likely to be outgunned in the bidding war for London Spirit, as India's richest family the Ambanis are determined to take control. A bid for one of the other seven franchises has not been ruled out however, with the Boehly camp discussing their strategy for much of this week.
Birmingham City's owners, Knighthead Capital Management, are expected to bid for the Birmingham Phoenix franchise, but despite being wooed by the ECB, Wrexham's Hollywood owners Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney are likely to sit it out.
Welsh it
The FA's independence from the Premier League and EFL has been called into question by the four EFL clubs seeking permission to play in a new Welsh League Cup next season.
The issue will be debated today at a crucial meeting of the FA's Professional Game Board (PGB), who following initial discussions are minded to reject the proposal, as was discussed in last week's newsletter. Multiple sources involved in what its architects have billed as Prosiect Cymru (Project Wales), have subsequently raised concerns about the independence of the FA, which is particularly relevant given the backdrop of the Football Governance Bill currently going through Parliament.
The PGB comprises of four representatives each from the FA and EFL, and is chaired by EFL Chair Rick Parry.
Prosiect Cymru is the brainchild of FA of Wales chief executive Noel Mooney, who has claimed the new 16-team competition will generate an extra £3m per year for Welsh football, with the proviso that Cardiff City, Swansea City, Wrexham and Newport County take part and are permitted to use the Welsh League Cup to qualify for Europe.
UEFA have given their blessing in principle as long as the clubs withdraw from the English qualifying pathway, but the EFL are understood to have raised strong objections. Mooney will address today's PGB meeting and is expected to emphasise the point that the four Welsh clubs have agreed to remove any income they subsequently receive from playing in Europe from their profit and sustainability rules calculations.
A source close to the project told FootBiz: “The independence of the Football Association Board is crucial for overseeing the governance of the sport for the benefit of all, rather than catering to the interests of any single league.
”The failure of football to properly govern itself has been a key driver of the Football Governance Bill and the football regulator. With the new Welsh League Cup proposals, the FA can demonstrate its ability to oversee the game independently and make decisions that serve the best interests of football."
On the subject of the Football Governance Bill, the government remain confident that it will be passed this year despite complaints from Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy this week that Conservative peers are seeking to "wreck" the legislation.
At a meeting of MPs and football club executives in Parliament on Monday Nandy accused Tory peers of seeking to introduce wrecking amendments in the House of Lord's, but behind the scenes there is more confidence that such stalling tactics will not succeed.
While most of the hundreds of amendments submitted during debates in the Lords have been rejected there is some concern over one tabled by former Cabinet Minister Lord Parkinson, which would make the bill a hybrid piece of legislation, potentially delaying its passage by several years.
Government sources have indicated they are confident of winning any vote on hybridity in the Lords however, before the bill returns to the Commons, where they certainly have the numbers to get it introduced.
MLS exit route
Major League Soccer is becoming a valuable exit route for players falling afoul of a FIFA rule governing how many clubs a player can represent in a season.
Wilfried Zaha is the latest example, with the Ivory Coast international having played for his parent club Galatasaray this season before they sent him on loan to Olympique Lyonnais. Struggling for minutes in Lyon, the Ligue 1 said were happy for him to leave but FIFA rules dictate that you can only play official matches for two clubs in a season.
The exception for this is where seasons overlap. Which means that leagues with a February-October season like MLS become a viable path for players who would otherwise spend the rest of the European campaign on the bench.
Odsonne Edouard is another case, having played twice for Crystal Palace in August before going on loan to Leicester City. Ruud van Nistelrooy has had little use for the former Celtic striker, giving him just 26 league minutes, but unless they can find him a move to the US then he will be stuck in a relegation battle with the Foxes until May.
Atlanta United have held talks over signing Edouard, who is still just 27 years old, but their top target up front is understood to be Middlesbrough forward Emmanuel Latte Lath.
Sage decision coming
France’s most prominent sports newspaper, L’Equipe, has accused “the uncontrollable” John Textor of not understanding European football after the Eagle Football owner sounded out Paulo Fonseca about taking over at Lyon.
Recently fired by AC Milan, Fonseca’s agent has been active in getting him out there and offering him up for opportunities - even telling Championship clubs he would be open to taking over if the price was right.
Textor, per L’Equipe, offered Fonseca the chance to take over Botafogo but the Portuguese coach declined. Nonetheless, they remained in contact and Textor has now sounded out Fonseca about replacing Pierre Sage as Lyon boss despite Les Gones being in the European places and within striking distance of the top two.
Sage has the third-best win percentage of any Lyon coach this century, but defeat to amateur, fifth-tier opposition in the French Cup this month has put him on the hot seat.
L’Equipe reported that Sage “would have difficulty overcoming poor performances in Istanbul on Thursday and Sunday in Nantes” despite being widely considered to have done a good job.
“Such is the life of coaches under John Textor,” they added.
Leics is more
Leicester City have borrowed money from Australian bank Macquarie in a move designed to increase their budget for new signings during the rest of the transfer window.
New manager Ruud Van Nistelrooy has only signed one player - French full-back Woyo Coulibaly - to date, leading to considerable frustration as the Dutchman was promised money to spend when he took over with the club in the midst of a relegation battle in November.
The Macquarie loan, which is secured against future TV income and Premier League prize money Leicester will receive later in the year, was registered at Companies House earlier this week but dated 9 January.
Leicester have used the Australian lenders for advanced funding before, with loans previously secured against future transfer instalments, and the two parties have a well-established relationship.
Given the loans are secured against guaranteed income sources familiar with the matter have told FootBiz that Leicester have obtained a relatively favourable interest rate of between seven and eight per cent, making the borrowing significantly cheaper than the 10 per cent-plus Everton have paid to the likes of MSD Capital and Rights and Media Funding over the last few years.