FootBiz newsletter #4: Chelsea drama, Ligue 1, Pochettino and Barca presidential challenge

Well, the Chelsea situation that has been bubbling under for a while has finally exploded, and there seems almost no way that one of Chelsea’s co-owners doesn’t sell their stake in the coming months.

That’s quite a turnaround from the sunshine and rainbows being promised in 2022 when Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital won the auction to take the club off Roman Abramovich’s hands (those hands somewhat forced by the British government).

Our big read yesterday was from Matt Hughes, dissecting what’s happened at boardroom level and - more importantly - what might happen next.

The most telling quote, considering the public perception that Boehly pulls the strings?

“Behdad was meant to let the professionals they appointed run Chelsea, but that hasn't happened."

“It feels like Behdad’s club.”

As ever with our premium analysis, it is behind the paywall. If you’re not already a subscriber then consider supporting FootBiz and becoming part of the wider community for access to events and other opportunities. Otherwise, this newsletter will be free twice a week so let’s get going…

Table of Contents

• Ligue of his own

• Premier League battles aren’t over

• M&A Murmurs

• Maur delays

• Barcelona presidential challenge

• Going back over old ground

• In case you missed it

Oh, and a minor programming note. If you’ve found any of these emails going to spam, simply reply to this newsletter saying Hi and it should fix it 👍️ 

Ligue of his own

Vincent Labrune has been re-elected as the president of the LFP in France, an astonishing turn for a man who oversaw the bungled process that led to a near halving of broadcast rights for clubs in the French top flight, Ligue 1.

We will have more of a deep dive into what happened in France this summer in the coming weeks but everyone just seems to be reacting with a typically Gallic shrug - “there were no other candidates.”

A brief summary for those unaware:

• Labrune told clubs he’d get €1bn in their new rights cycle (€800m domestic, €200m international)

• The deadline for bids passed and none even met the reserve price

• He continued to tell clubs that he’d get the €1bn number

• He threatened that Ligue 1 would launch their own channel and streaming service (an empty grab for leverage, considering there was no time to stand it up)

• Ligue 1 signs €500m deal with DAZN (8 games per week) and BeIn Sports (1 game)

“He sells himself better than he sold the rights for Ligue 1,” quipped L’Equipe’s Vincent Duluc.

As I say, more to come on this.

Premier League battles aren’t over

We covered the Leicester City verdict last week but all eyes are now turning to the Manchester City case, which by this time next week should actually be underway.

The Premier League is under a lot of pressure to prove it can (be seen to) govern itself shortly after a glaring hole in the rulebook got exposed by the wily Foxes.

Those watching closely?

The other clubs, some of whom want justice and some of whom simply want blood.

The government, who remain unconvinced that the Premier League can function without an independent regulator.

Then there are club owners and regulators everywhere else, who want to know whether any of these league rulebooks are worth the pdf they’re written on.

No pressure, then.

M&A Murmurs

This will be a regular segment discussing the latest around clubs that have sold or potential transactions

There have been lots of enquiries but “very few” serious parties interested in taking a minority stake in Brentford, given Matthew Benham’s ~£400m valuation of the West London club, from what we’re told.

Someone with knowledge of the situation tells us that Benham’s dream outcome (justifiably cashing out a little on the club that he elevated to unthinkable heights while retaining control and bringing in a deep-pocketed investor) remains exactly that for now - a dream.

Speaking to people in the industry about the deal, it certainly seems to be a bit of a flag that Premier League valuations might be a bit ‘toppy’, a phrase several people have separately used with me in the past few weeks (that I don’t think I’ve ever heard in any other context) and fits with the general mood of investors towards English football.

On one hand, half a billion dollars for a club that was in League Two only 15 years ago seems outrageous, and in reality any deal would surely happen at a much smaller figure. This is also a club that is more reliant than any other in the Premier League on the distributed TV revenues, which form 82% of the total turnover in their most recently published accounts.

On the other, an EV of ~£400m isn’t an egregious multiple (2.4x) of the club’s £167m revenue in 2022/23, and assuming Benham remains involved and you have access to the data model that helped drag the club into the Premier League then that may serve to knock down the risk of relegation.

More than that, Brentford actually make a profit! That isn’t common in English football but for now, you’d expect them to sit on the market for a while until macro trends improve.

As we mentioned last week, respected investment bank Moelis will be selling 777’s portfolio of clubs on behalf of major creditors A-Cap.

Well, there should be progress on Standard Liege next week as their new-look board meets to push forward their sale process.

“The reconstituted Board of Directors will consist of two representatives of the Club and two representatives of A-CAP,” the club said in a statement.

“777 Partners will no longer have a seat on the Board of Directors, which means the end of their control over the club.”

“This transitional board will work with Moelis & Co., a leading international and independent investment bank, to support the completion of the sales process that began in June and to ensure the stability of the club during this process through an ongoing dialogue between A-CAP and Standard.”

“Standard and A-CAP would like to reaffirm that everything is being done to move forward efficiently in a process that should allow Standard to launch a new ambitious project in the coming months.”

Standard are one of Belgium’s biggest clubs, traditionally, but have struggled to be competitive in the top flight and have qualified only once for European football since the Covid-curtailed season in 2020.

That lack of UEFA prize money has not helped their financial situation, and the club counts on debts of €60m, but they remain well-supported and are probably the biggest club in the French-speaking part of the country.

Paris-based Ligue 2 club Red Star FC are a 777/A-Cap asset that we understand to be attracting a ton of interest.

Maur delays

It has been weeks since Mauricio Pochettino was locked in as the choice to be the head coach that leads the USMNT into their home World Cup, but haggling between the US federation and Chelsea continues to hold things up.

I mentioned in newsletter #1 that I believe it could end up being one of the most impactful hires ever if you consider the effect it could have on football in America.

But that impact only happens if he actually gets announced, and while those close to him are willing to confirm off-record that the deal will happen, and even the members of his coaching staff who will join him, it still isn’t signed and/or announced.

It appeared we had white smoke on Friday, with US officials set to fly to Barcelona to finalise their agreement with the Argentine coach but the trip never happened. At the last moment, with no compensation agreement reached with Chelsea, the trip was cancelled.

Then on Sunday, Fox Sports and ESPN both reported it was imminent, with Fox saying it would be announced on Monday and ESPN saying the board was convening to ratify his hire.

But Monday came and went, and still no signing.

Those inside the USSF are unconcerned by “external noise” and say they had always planned for under-20s coach Mikey Varas to take charge of the games against Canada and New Zealand.

After a deeply disappointing loss to their neighbours in the north, it still feels like an opportunity missed to get in their guy and give him 10 days with his new charges.

By the time you next receive this newsletter on Thursday, we predict we will have news. Make sure you’re subscribed.

Barcelona presidential challenge

FC Barcelona president Joan Laporta is under a fair amount of pressure for his running of the club, which seems to be based upon the principles of mortgaging off anything that isn’t nailed to the ground and selling off all future earnings, all while attempting to bring in expensive transfers that the club can’t afford, let alone register in their La Liga squad.

So rather unsurprisingly, challengers have started to emerge.

Those close to Victor Font, who came second when he ran against Laporta in 2021, tell us he will speak at a press conference today (Tuesday) and that opposition to Laporta is beginning to rally behind him in the form of a number of different groups.

Whether they can actually force Laporta to resign before the next election in spring 2026 is hard to see, but as Rob Draper wrote recently - this is a club that has been chronically mismanaged.

In other Barca news, the club hopes to host its first game at the new Camp Nou before the end of 2024, with a reduced capacity of 64,000.

Going back over old ground

I wanted to revisit a couple of things we’ve covered recently that have developed a touch since we discussed them.

Liverpool look like they’re going to make the push we discussed a few weeks ago to tie down Mo Salah and Virgil van Dijk to new contracts. As they probably should.

No word on Trent Alexander-Arnold, though. The Liverpool academy graduate looks every inch a future club captain and the sort of local soul that clubs should fight tooth and nail to never let go, but with his contract ticking down there is a surprising lack of news, breadcrumbs or anything on him extending.

Reports in Spain maintain that Real Madrid are confident of signing both the Liverpudlian and FC Bayern’s Alphonso Davies on Bosman deals next summer.

As we mentioned in the original post, the leverage is now fully with Trent, who had a great international break starring as a right-back for England in their first game under Lee Carsley.

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire also commented towards the end of his Premier League spending review that we might see more players running down their contracts in hope of a Bosman payday now that leagues have emerged from the Covid era of less risk.

Whether Liverpool can convince Trent not to do that is going to be an ongoing story this autumn.

In case you missed it

How can football wean itself off its reliance on betting revenues? 

A question that sponsorships expert Ricardo Fort tried to answer.