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- FootBiz newsletter #132: The most interesting transfer story in an otherwise quiet January
FootBiz newsletter #132: The most interesting transfer story in an otherwise quiet January
Semenyo's Man City move will be the biggest deal, but a potential move for Marc Guehi from the Premier League's elite has many layers
Ed Malyon & Matt Hughes
January 09, 2026 • Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
In a January window where we don’t expect too much Premier League action, in part because teams are trying to get their SCR counters set to zero before the new regulatory regime truly arrives in the summer, Antoine Semenyo’s £62.5m move to Manchester City will almost certainly be the biggest transfer of the month.
The Bournemouth winger seemingly had the pick of a number of top clubs, with Liverpool reportedly in the mix, Chelsea never afraid to add yet another winger and Manchester United reported as telling him he’d play on the left of a 4-3-3, part of the reason for the Wilcox-Amorim bust-up that would eventually see United once again hunting for a new head coach (not a manager).
Marc Guehi may have a similar decision to make.
The Crystal Palace captain was on the brink of a move to Liverpool on deadline day last summer, passing a medical and ready to go until Palace chairman Steve Parish pulled the plug with the club unable to secure a replacement.
Parish had said last August that he would sell Guehi during that window to avoid losing him for free, but faced with a manager who has been openly critical at times of the club’s transfer operations, he opted to keep hold of 25-year-old with the idea that Palace winning the UEFA Conference League, and thus qualifying for next season’s Europa League, would return almost as much as Liverpool were offering.
£62m man Semenyo scored a late winner in his final Bournemouth game
So the expectation had been that Guehi, admired as he is by all of the elite clubs in the Premier League as well as credited interest from Bayern Munich and Spain, would see out his contract with Palace and have his pick of destination next June — securing himself a bigger salary and/or signing bonus in the process.
Now, though, he and Palace could have a decision to make.
Liverpool’s struggles have only deepened their need for a defender, while injuries at Arsenal have suddenly thrust them into the market for one too (per David Ornstein) while the same reason has Manchester City in the mix for the England man, with Josko Gvardiol joining Ruben Dias and John Stones on the sidelines.
Suddenly that’s three very wealthy, very needy suitors for a defender who might be available for far below the market value for a player of his calibre.
Palace paid £18m for Guehi and there are some sell-ons owed to Chelsea, who also boast some sort of buyback or first refusal clause, per reports at the time of the deal, so the Eagles would demand at least £30m to make it worth their while.
Understandably, the clubs that want him are reluctant to unload so much on a player they could pick up for far less in a few months’ time but such is the prize money at the top level now that winning the Champions League would level things out nicely for any of them. At 25, he’s also an asset they’d have for a long time and they could avoid being drawn into a much wider auction come June (or July, if Guehi wants to bet on the World Cup increasing his value).
Marc Guehi will likely start for England at the World Cup as his contract expires
Guehi would have to agree, though. Which is no guarantee.
While he was happy to move to Anfield when that deal was all but done in the dog days of summer, he’s not far away from being able to have his pick of some of the world’s biggest clubs. Why potentially take less money now to choose from a narrower selection of them?
Of course, if Guehi already was favouring one of these clubs (Arsenal would mean not having to move house, Liverpool may always have been his top choice, City always find a way to convince) then moving now, getting the wage bump and playing Champions League football for the rest of the season would also be pretty tempting.
“If a massive offer comes from City and Marc wants to do it, it will happen,” said Palace boss Oliver Glasner this week.
“If you’re just valuing [the sporting aspect] everyone in the club will say Marc has to stay. The chairman will tell you the same. But it’s not one-dimensional. If you see the financial situation, it’s very important.
“Everybody wants him to play for Crystal Palace, sign a new contract and stay here forever. His contract ends in the summer and if somebody comes… there will be a moment when the club says: now the financial issue is more important than the sports issue.”
While Palace enjoyed a hot start to the Premier League season, breaking and then continuing a club record unbeaten streak, they’re now winless since a 3-0 romp over League of Ireland side Shelbourne in mid-November. European qualification via league position once looked likely but now seems implausible, especially given the visibly tired performances from a thin squad that is increasingly ravaged by injuries.
Palace had held onto Guehi in part to boost their European hopes
Palace remain the betting favourites to win the Conference League (market implies they have a 25-30% chance of winning it, and qualifying for next year’s Europa League) but missed out on the bye that comes with a top-eight finish during the league phase and now face two extra matches in an already-packed schedule. The calculation may now have shifted since the autumn, and Parish — who planned and agreed to sell Guehi in August, remember — may be open to a January deal that few thought would pop up.
Glasner did admit Parish would “ask a very high price” but his suggestion that the club are already looking for a Guehi replacement may have betrayed their shifting stance. That job falls to new sporting director Matt Hobbs, in conjunction with consultant Iain Moody. It may be the most significant piece of player recruitment at the club since Dougie Freedman’s departure.
“We have to do it and try to get the best [replacement] we can get to be as successful as possible,” said Glasner.
“There will be a threshold where the club has to say it will happen, as long as Marc says ‘I want to leave’, because the final decision is always with the player.”
And then there’s another layer to this of Parish trying to convince Glasner to sign a new deal at Palace, which — if at all possible —would surely(?) only be helped by keeping Guehi as long as possible. Anyone who has been around Glasner knows he is simply desperate to win trophies and there’s virtually nobody on the planet who could come in as an immediate upgrade on Guehi.
Just for fun, and acknowledging we don’t have all the facts, my view is that if you lost £37m in your last accounts then you’ve got to fund the replacement somehow. The necessities of modern football are that sometimes you have to sacrifice a small amount of short-term win probability (in this case, winning the Conference League) to balance the books. Parish has been bold in negotiations before — whether standing up to other clubs, refusing to sell a want away star or turning down Bayern’s offer for Glasner — and if he can get £30m+ for Guehi this month it could easily end up making Palace better in the medium term.
Stay or go, the layers of this potential deal provides us with lots of moving pieces in a window that’s otherwise set to be fairly still.
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