FootBiz newsletter #101: We go deep in the Manchester United quagmire

When David Moyes’ Manchester United were knocked out of the FA Cup by Swansea City in January 2014, the Swans’ first-ever win at Old Trafford, it felt like the fall from the Sir Alex Ferguson era was complete. This was the nadir.

As one legendary social media observation put it: “Watching Man Utd these days is like meeting the kid who bullied you at school, 20 years on, working as a human sign post for a golf sale.”

Well we’re 11 years on from that day now — nearly 12 — and the bottom is not in sight. We figured it might be, once Sir Jim Ratcliffe came in and gutted the club’s staff, took away their benefits, binned one of the most respected sporting directors in the world and finished 16th in the Premier League. But apparently not.

Apparently the bottom is a Carabao Cup elimination at Grimsby Town. A game that had so many narrative-fulfilling moments that it was hard to focus on one.

The ongoing goalkeeping saga where Andre Onana finds increasingly comical ways to concede goals in increasingly few appearances on the pitch concluded with yet another in Cleethorpes on Wednesday night to help send United in 2-0 down at the break. After fighting their way back in ugly style, the match went to penalties and the two big-money signings of the summer, Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha, were the ones who missed the penalties in the shootout.

(At least they wanted to take theirs! £80m signing Benjamin Sesko — a bloody striker - deferred until 10th to hit his, with only the keeper waiting longer)

Mbeumo or Cunha’s transfer fees this summer, gaudy as they were, could buy Grimsby Town many times owner but 12 yards out and with elimination on the line they could not convert. There will always be some things money can’t buy.

It is not as if they are bad players, in fact a lot of Manchester United’s players are not bad players. But that is kind of the point.

Whatever is happening at Old Trafford is dragging down the players. Like it or not, the players’ performances are the most important thing in determining the results achieved by a football club, and successive coaches at United have seen players perform significantly below their level.

Ruben Amorim’s CV before joining United was incredibly exciting. He had all the marks of generational coaching talent, succeeding at Braga and then Sporting CP, where the data suggested his system was getting the best out of the players.

The exact opposite has been true in Manchester.

Looking at win percentage, which isn’t a fully contextual metric, Amorim (25.9%) is the worst manager in United history. His win rate is now lower than Jimmy Murphy, who juggled being the Wales coach at the same time but, more notably, replaced Matt Busby after the legendary coach and half the United squad perished in the Munich air disaster. That would constitute significantly tougher working conditions than having to fit Mason Mount and Bruno Fernandes into the same midfield.

And all this failure in an era where the financial gap that United have over most of their opponents is greater than it has ever been. The structure has completely changed from the era of Sir Alex Ferguson into the David Moyes, Louis van Gaal and Jose Mourinho eras, changing dramatically once again with INEOS’ arrival as the sporting operator of the club but nothing seems to shift it. Nothing seems to work.

Amorim’s emotional interview after the game had people wondering if the Portuguese was ready to simply give up and walk away from the club. From a self-preservation perspective (ignoring the large sums of money he’d be giving up by doing so) you can see why it might be tempting.

And of course the issue now is that Amorim has had two transfer windows to mould the squad to his very particular needs and the system that was supposed to elevate talent, rather than disengage it. He has bombed out Alejandro Garnacho, flogging one of United’s top young talents to a Premier League rival having successfully incinerated at least £25-30m in value. Garnacho leaving for just £40m would have been absurd a year ago. It’s now not even the biggest concern at United.

Scott McTominay was sold a year ago and became the best player in Serie A. Antony was a disaster arriving from Ajax (and was a huge overpay regardless) but then thrived at Real Betis after escaping the madhouse. When you put together all the data points, it is hard to come to any conclusion except for United — the place, the club, the culture — being the problem.

So what next?

INEOS have disposed of Dan Ashworth and thrown their weight behind Jason Wilcox and Omar Berrada as the faces of the new regime. In fact, part of the reason Ashworth was fired was because he didn’t take the bull by the horns in the coaching search, with the Berrada-Wilcox axis (a relationship that began at CFG, of course) instead dominating the process, fighting for Amorim and sidelining Ashworth. Ratcliffe, an old-school operator, was impressed and dismissed Ashworth not long after.

Liverpool had looked at Amorim just months earlier but felt the changes that he required would need an outlay of some £500m to give the Portuguese coach a chance of success with his demands in terms of players and coaching staff, per The Independent. Arne Slot was more willing to simply fit in. The results speak for themselves. It shouldn’t need saying that having a plan and a direction that is greater than one individual is vital for success.

Now United have yanked the club from one direction — that of Erik Ten Hag, with all his specifically requested players — to another, with all the specifically requested players that Amorim now can’t get a tune out of. If the Portuguese walks, the mess he would leave behind is considerable.

And fresh off a night of contemplating defeat at Grimsby Town, then you have nine Premier League rivals heading for the draws for the UEFA competitions.

The Times reported on Thursday evening that Amorim has the backing of the United board, which after such a short spell in charge largely brings to mind a quote from fictional spin doctor Malcolm Tucker in The Thick of It:

“The PM is not going to sack you after a week.

“Sacked after 12 months and it looks like you've fucked up.

“Sacked after a week - looks like he's fucked up.”

It would be Amorim stepping down that would truly throw the club into disarray. As if they aren’t already.

It’s not just a week that reminds United of how far they’ve fallen. It’s a week that reminds United of how far they have to go to get back to where they need to be.

Loads of good stuff behind the paywall today, including Champions League draw dispatches, the truth about who is funding Kia Joorabchian’s horse racing empire, another Premier League club in talks over selling their women’s team and a load more…

Table of Contents

• CL draw latest

• Tottenham bring back Fabio after ban

• Marinakis, Kia, Nuno and the horses

• Violence in Argentina shocks CONMEBOL

• Matches abroad a ‘betrayal’ of fans

• West Ham eye Monarch deal

• Barca’s stadium woes deepen

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