This week could herald a significant shift in Premier League history, not just because Arsenal could tonight win their first league title in decades but because the most dominant manager since Sir Alex Ferguson, and one of the most influential coaches of the modern era, appears likely to walk off into the sunset.

Yes, there is a strong chance that Pep Guardiola will announce his departure from Manchester City this week and yet there’s almost no justice you can do to how big his influence has been — and therefore how much City will miss him.

The signs have been there for a while, the biggest of which being the manager of a rival club leaving his job earlier this season after twice holding talks with City (in October and December) about replacing Pep — which may, amid the other wild goings-on at Chelsea and the speed at which the Premier League moves, have kind of slipped under the radar for how big a story it was. 

Chelsea’s coach was in talks with City about succeeding Pep and left the job he had, with a club playing Champions League football, because of it! Hey, Scooby, I think we’ve found a clue! Seems significant!

Add in that some key Pep lieutenants are also confirmed as leaving the club this summer, that Pep actually decided to leave before changing his mind and extending his contract last time, as well as his notable refusal to say definitively that he is staying (just that he has a contract) and you would feel a little silly for doubting that this could well be the end.

With that as context, it wasn’t surprising that Pep’s departure was the first thought that leapt into people’s minds last Thursday, when a leaked picture of an elaborate goodbye video being filmed at the Etihad, featuring a camera winding backwards through a number of trophies on plinths and someone with a distinctly Pep outfit and appearance walking through them. The club never formally denied it, but did brief local journalists that it was for Bernardo Silva, another key figure from the Pep era who is confirmed to be departing this summer. 

But I still just go back to the Maresca story. City were calling Pep’s former assistant, the manager of a Prem rival, last autumn to plan Guardiola’s succession. We know this to be true. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean that it would be this summer — Guardiola’s contract still has 12 months left — but the Italian walked away from a club playing Champions League football. 

Now he is sat around waiting, declining interest from top Italian clubs who have picked up the phone, per FootBiz sources. Would he be doing that if he wasn’t going to take over at City? Italian reports state that he has already agreed his contract at the Etihad, it’s just a case of when he takes over.

Whatever may happen with the 130 charges increasingly looks as if it will not entail any serious sporting consequences, but in the absurdly unlikely event that City had to spend a season outside the Premier League or even just outside European competition (presumably via a points deduction that would make it hard to finish top seven) then Maresca has shown he’s willing to be patient in return for one of the biggest jobs in European football.

Some may disagree with that framing given City’s nouveau riche aesthetic and the general dislike of their sterile inauthenticity, but you cannot deny this is an ownership group that has invested heavily, that has built a huge sporting project spanning every continent that isn’t covered by ice, and hasn’t meddled unnecessarily, leaving the big football hires to do their big football jobs.

Given what Maresca went through at Chelsea, you could appreciate how that may seem like the land of milk and honey.

The expectation at FootBiz and from some at Man City is of Guardiola leaving this summer, and thus you might expect an announcement before the final game of the season in normal circumstances. With the title potentially on the line, it was less clear whether that would be a good idea but if Arsenal win the league tonight, there’s no reason to hold it any longer.

While it is rare that a club can be as prepared as this for the departure of such a significant figure, and so the transition should notionally be pretty smooth, the reality is that Manchester City will never be the same again. The Hugo Viana and Enzo Maresca era may well be a much-needed evolution from the days of the Txiki-Pep alliance but the volume of trophies will be hard to match and the influence on the wider sport impossible to top.

This is all now just a case of when, not if, and there are plenty of signs pointing to this week potentially being the end of a Premier League era.

After the above intro was written yesterday, the Daily Mail’s Oliver Holt published a story reporting Guardiola would leave City this summer. David Ornstein’s report soon followed, which is good enough for us.

Pep will end his reign with a cup double this season, and tickets for their season finale at home to Aston Villa just became significantly more in-demand.