FootBiz newsletter #147: Iran World Cup boycott and more fallout

Two weeks in a row where it’s pretty impossible to start the newsletter without discussing geopolitics. Sorry about that.

In his well-established role as the main character of world news on any given day, Donald Trump finally did exactly what he had spent years saying he wouldn’t do and struck Iran on Friday night (once the markets had closed, of course) in a move that will cause significant unrest in the short, medium and long-term in the Middle East.

Indeed, since Friday there have been major strikes and retaliatory actions targeting: Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, and a British base in Cyprus, RAF Akrotiri.

Of course, if you wanted to simply read about all that stuff then you wouldn’t be reading this, so the real question is how does this affect football?

Most obviously, Iran’s participation in this summer’s World Cup comes into doubt.

Travelling to the country that has just bombed you probably doesn’t appeal to many. “What is certain is that after this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope,” said Mehdi Taj, president of the Iranian federation.

Iran were drawn to play once in Seattle and two games at LA’s SoFi Stadium, likely providing something approaching a home atmosphere given the amount of exiled Iranians in Los Angeles’ significant Persian population. But at the 2022 World Cup we saw confrontations between differing factions of Iranian fans who found themselves on different sides of the country’s internal divide. LA’s Iranians would almost all, you would expect, be pro-Shah and hoping for the downfall of the Islamic Republic’s regime but internal conflict remains a possibility this summer. At such a sensitive time in the country’s history, when the Islamic Republic currently has no leader and could be in danger of falling, the potential for flashpoints would be significantly elevated.

On a more basic level, given that backdrop, you also need to consider whether the players want to play, whether the federation wants to be seen travelling to America and whether these games would be considered safe from a security standpoint. There are all questions we don’t know the answer to yet.

Iranian nationals are already banned from travelling to the US due to a 2025 executive order from president Trump, and so visas were already one of many logistical and operational hotspots heading towards the summer’s tournament. FIFA had managed to squeeze guarantees out of the government (for what they’re worth, at least) that players, coaches and officials would not be affected by an inability to obtain visas but how realistic that is remains anyone’s guess (sorry to continue with the vagueness, but the only thing certain at the moment is uncertainty).

"We are in uncharted territory in that we are just over three months away from the start of the World Cup and the hosts have just launched a war of aggression against a participating country," Nick McGeehan from human rights advocacy group FairSquare told the BBC.

"If Iran withdraws its team - an outcome that seems entirely plausible - FIFA is likely to breathe a sigh of relief given the scope for protest and unrest."

Iran withdrawing wouldn’t surprise anybody, but it would be a stain on the tournament. As it is on FIFA, who a few months (and two toppled regimes) ago, gave Trump a confected Peace Prize in what would at this point make more sense as an elaborate prank than any sort of meaningful gesture. Gianni Infantino declaring the prize was actually ironic and trying to get everyone to laugh along would probably be the most widely welcomed thing he has said in several years.

Though it wouldn’t erase his complicity.

Bombing Iran has had consequences far beyond Iran. Of the earlier list of countries that have been struck this weekend (either by Israel and the US or as retaliation) — Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman and Cyprus — three are World Cup qualifiers. Cyprus is due to host UEFA games in the coming weeks and Iraq are in the inter-confederation playoff later this month with a good chance of qualifying when they face the winner of Bolivia vs Suriname.

If we assume Iran withdraw (given them not withdrawing does not particularly require scenario planning) then who replaces them? Should Iraq fail to qualify via the inter-confederation playoff then they’d have a good claim. UAE would be the other team who has a chance, based on their performances during qualification, but the best guess would be FIFA opting for Iran’s neighbours. If Iraq do get past Bolivia/Suriname then the UAE will have significantly louder claim to a spot, and are lucky to have the right people in influential positions in football to try and secure a first-ever World Cup appearance.

Beyond the World Cup repercussions, the Finalissima was due to take place in Qatar later this month.

If you don’t know what the Finalissima is, it is a one-off match between the UEFA and CONMEBOL champions that has its roots in the 1980s but which was rebranded and relaunched in 2022 after a memorandum of understanding between football’s two most successful confederations. Argentina beat Italy 3-0 at Wembley Stadium in the first relaunched edition, played in June 2022, while this month’s fixture sees Argentina play Spain in Qatar.

Given Qatar has been subjected to drone and rocket strikes in recent days, there is increasing uncertainty over the west Asian peninsula’s suitability to host the event. Spanish media appears to have been fairly well briefed on the latest, and reports yesterday claimed there are contingency plans being arranged.

One of the primary issues is that the supreme committee of Qatar is organising (and paying for) the whole thing, which also includes a money-spinning friendly between Spain and Egypt days later. The contract, per one Spanish newspaper, does not have a clause about military action and so the Qataris would no longer be on the hook financially for the match if it does not take place.

Finding another place to host it is not easy though.

Miami is the obvious location, but who would take on board the significant costs (including $10m+ payments to each federation) with such little time to prepare? The other federations with enough money to spend on this game are also defending themselves against unmanned drones right now.

The chance of recouping costs at this stage seems remote, though if Relevent and Stephen Ross can negotiate into this deal a future Argentina friendly in Miami then perhaps a loss-leader would be worth it? Most likely, though, this game is just postponed for now and the teams must scramble to find friendly opposition.

Elsewhere, Ireland’s UEFA Nations League fixture with Israel will now need even tighter security to go ahead without a hitch. Galling for Ireland is that they had previously tabled a motion to have Israel banned from competition, citing breaches of UEFA statutes, but have now been told they are obliged to fulfil their fixture with Israel this month or risk punishments of their own. The Athletic reported that “Irish football’s governing body aims to use the match to ‘provide tangible support for humanitarian efforts assisting civilians affected by the conflict’ in the Middle East”, in-keeping with the broad Irish sympathy for the Palestinian cause. Israel’s elimination from UEFA qualifying in November will at least avoid one major headache for FIFA this summer.

Anyway, there’s more disruption coming.

Not the cheeriest note to start on but we’ve got plenty of lighter content below the paywall, including some fairly big changes to VAR, worrying financial results for West Ham, the Championship potentially expanding its playoffs and why the USA’s World Cup opener isn’t selling out - even though FIFA told us all the games already had… 🤔🤔 🤔 

Table of Contents

• Nantes could pay heavy price for PSG’s CL ambition …

• VAR broadens its scope despite opposition

• Liverpool’s table-topping wage bill

• West Ham: Drop has ‘serious consequences’

• Executive changes afoot at Forest 

• Championship play-off expansion set for vote

• What FIFA’s surprise ticket window told us

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